METHODHOW THE OMEN IS READ

HOW THE OMEN IS READ

OMEN indexes every launch on Pons, pools.trade and Mint Club on Robinhood Chain from the chain's own events. The omen reflects the observed past of the creator: how their earlier launches ended and whether they walked away from them. It cannot see intent and does not predict price.

THE INDEX, NOW

LAUNCHES INDEXED: 753,196
LAST 24H: 16,663
FROM REPEAT CREATORS: 34.1%
GRADUATIONS: 7,290

Indexed up to block 61,218,559, updated 2026-09-12 15:40 UTC. 0 launches still wait for their transaction sender to be read. A worker reads new blocks every minute.

WHO THE CREATOR IS

On a launchpad the contract that deploys a token is the factory, not a person. OMEN reads the person from each launchpad's own event, and from the transaction sender where the event does not carry them:

SOURCE	CONTRACT	EVENT → CREATOR
Pons V2 factory	0x7ed598bc…ec7e	TokenLaunched(token, curve, deployer) and PoolGraduated(token)
Pons V1 factory	0xa5aab3f0…1feb	TokenLaunched v1 (token, creator): superseded, history only
pools.trade entry	0x0000ffff…19c0	TokenCreated(token): creator = transaction sender
pools.trade entry (first)	0x00004c4c…d4e9	TokenCreated(token): creator = transaction sender
Mint Club MCV2_Bond	0x91523b39…51fa	TokenCreated(token, name, symbol, reserveToken): creator = transaction sender

When a Pons launch is sent through Multicall3, the event's deployer is that shared contract, so the transaction sender is used instead. A token from any other launchpad or a hand-deployed contract reads as "creator unknown"; OMEN does not guess.

THE OMEN

Each earlier launch gets two labels, both re-readable on chain:

> OUTCOME: GRADUATED (the curve filled and its reserve was locked into a pool), DEAD (older than a day, no trade in 24 hours and reserve under $1,000; a Pons V2 token still on its curve is dead on no trade alone, because the reserve GeckoTerminal shows for a curve is virtual), ALIVE, YOUNG (under 24 hours, not judged) or UNREAD. When GeckoTerminal has no pool for a token (it drops long-dead ones), the chain decides: any transfer of the token in the last 24 hours reads ALIVE, none reads DEAD.
> CREATOR: EXITED (the creator received the token and now holds under 10% of what it received), HELD, or NEVER (it never held its own token).

risk = 50 × dead share + 30 × exit share + 20 × cadence

dead share = DEAD ÷ (DEAD + ALIVE + GRADUATED)      over the 50 most recent earlier launches
                                                    (older than 24h when the newest 50 are all too young)
exit share = EXITED ÷ (EXITED + HELD)                over those where the creator held tokens
cadence    = min(1, launches in the last 24h ÷ 20)

0–33 PALE · 34–66 SHADOWED · 67–100 DIRE · no earlier launch = no omen

A soft rug is the creator selling out of their own token; a hard rug is pulling the liquidity. On Pons V2 the curve's reserve graduates into a permanently locked Uniswap v4 position, pools.trade liquidity is held by the protocol, and a Mint Club reserve sits in the bond contract, so a creator cannot pull it: the omen scores the soft kind only and says so.

PAID ATTENTION

A launch can buy its way onto a screener. DexScreener sells and publishes four things, and OMEN reports them next to each launch: an Enhanced Token Info profile (the icon, header and links on the token page), an ad, a community takeover of the profile, and boosts, bought in dollars. A launch shows PAID when DexScreener holds one of those for it, an em dash when DexScreener carries the token and sold it nothing, and a question mark when DexScreener does not carry the token at all - usually a launch minutes old, or one long gone.

PROMOTED TOKENS SEEN: 85
OF THEM, INDEXED LAUNCHES: 63
BOOSTS BOUGHT: $4.8K
SEEN IN 24H: 85

Buying attention is not scored. It is not evidence of a rug on its own: honest projects pay for a profile too. The omen stays the three measured shares above, so the number cannot drift with a marketing budget - what the report gives you is the pairing, which you can read yourself: a creator who paid for a profile on a launch that is dead now, and how often that pattern repeats.

> Where it comes from: a worker poll of DexScreener's three public feeds every minute, kept in the index, plus DexScreener's own paid-order endpoint for the launches on the page you are reading.
> A promoted launch older than this feature can be missed until someone opens its report: the per-token endpoint allows 60 calls a minute, which cannot sweep 753,196 launches. PAID is a fact; an em dash means "nothing found", not "nothing bought".
> DexScreener takes a few minutes to carry a new launch, and its order ledger lags its own profile feed, so a profile bought minutes ago can read as a question mark.

SOURCES AND LIMITS

> Launch events and creator transfers: the public Robinhood Chain RPC (chain id 4663). Pool reserve and 24h volume: GeckoTerminal, cached five minutes. Paid promotion: DexScreener's public feeds and its paid-order endpoint.
> Launch times of the backfilled history are interpolated between sampled blocks, accurate to a few minutes.
> A creator who moves tokens through a second wallet before selling reads as HELD or NEVER. The omen measures what the creator's own address did.
> Contract references: Pons contracts, pools.trade entry contracts, Mint Club V2, pools.trade liquidity.

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